Recent escalations involving the U.S. and Iran highlight an important reality: geopolitical tensions frequently extend into cyberspace. Cyber threat actors affiliated with or sympathetic to Iran are intensifying their efforts, increasing risks not only for U.S.-based organizations but also for companies across allied nations, particularly those with diplomatic, military, or critical infrastructure ties. Reflecting this elevated threat landscape, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) recently issued a National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin, emphasizing the increased risk of retaliatory cyber operations. While a ceasefire is in place as of publication, the situation remains highly fluid. History shows that malicious cyber activity can persist well beyond the resolution of kinetic conflict, making it critical for organizations to remain alert and prepared.
Geopolitical flashpoints have long been catalysts for sophisticated and sustained cyber campaigns. Over the years, we’ve observed how nation-state actors—particularly those aligned with Iran—consistently turn to cyberspace to pursue political and strategic aims, using tactics like destructive malware, targeted intrusions, and disinformation. In response to Stuxnet in 2010, Iran launched a sustained wave of cyberattacks that extended beyond the U.S. to impact countries across the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. These included destructive attacks like the Shamoon wiper malware against Saudi Aramco in 2012, as well as espionage operations conducted by groups such as APT33, APT34 (OilRig), and APT35 (Charming Kitten). Their targets have included energy companies, universities, government agencies, and NATO-linked organizations across the U.K., France, Germany, and the Netherlands. What began as immediate retaliation evolved into long-term operations focused on intelligence collection, credential harvesting, and supply chain infiltration.
Why Global Organizations Must Stay Vigilant
The recent U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities—known as Operation Midnight Hammer—have ushered in a period of heightened cyber risk, prompting both hacktivist and state-sponsored actors to focus on organizations aligned with U.S. and allied interests. These attacks can range from disruptive, attention-grabbing activity to stealth operations intended to gain long-term access or interfere with systems over time.
Geopolitical cyber threats seldom remain contained within borders. U.S. allies and countries hosting U.S. military or diplomatic installations, especially across Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific, must remain particularly vigilant against digital threats. Historically, Iranian cyber threat groups have demonstrated a willingness and capability to operate globally, indiscriminately impacting sectors such as energy, finance, healthcare, government, telecommunications, and manufacturing.
For instance, the late-2023 “CyberAv3ngers” campaign targeted programmable logic controllers (PLCs) and human-machine interfaces (HMIs), exploiting vulnerabilities to disrupt critical infrastructure operations. With such previous success, such tactics could readily be used again against the U.S. and other allied countries in 2025 as well.
Anticipated Cyber Threats and Retaliatory Actions
Organizations globally should anticipate several forms of cyber threats in response to escalating geopolitical tensions. Destructive malware attacks, such as wiper malware designed to erase or corrupt data, have historically caused severe operational disruptions and prolonged business interruptions. Targeted intrusions aimed at critical infrastructure sectors, including energy, healthcare, defense, and government, are expected, often involving espionage, sabotage, and exploitation of known vulnerabilities or credential harvesting.
We can also expect coordinated disinformation efforts and phishing campaigns—often enhanced by AI-generated content—aimed at misleading the public, eroding trust, and distracting defenders. These efforts are designed to manipulate perception, incite confusion, and provoke panic. In parallel, opportunistic acts such as DDoS attacks or website defacements will likely continue, serving as symbolic efforts to amplify propaganda and signal capability.
Three Immediate Steps to Reduce Risk
Given the immediate threats, organizations must act decisively. These are the three most important steps you can take to reduce your risk right now:
1. Reduce your attack surface across IT and OT environments. Adopt a zero trust network access (ZTNA) approach, remove unnecessary internet access, implement least privilege, eliminate default credentials, enable multi-factor authentication (MFA) and mutual TLS authentication where possible, and segment critical infrastructure to prevent lateral movement. For operational technology environments, organizations should consider adopting an ICS/OT cybersecurity framework that includes the following critical controls recommended by SANS:
- ICS-specific incident response plans: Develop operations-informed response plans focused on maintaining system integrity and recovery. These exercises should prioritize risk scenarios, root cause analysis, and continuity of operations.
- Defensible architecture: Implement visibility, log collection, segmentation, and secure communication between systems to reduce risk through design.
- ICS network visibility and monitoring: Use protocol-aware tools and monitor system interactions to detect vulnerabilities and enhance recovery readiness.
- Secure remote access: Strengthen remote access controls to prevent lateral movement into OT environments, especially from IT or third-party networks.
- Risk-based vulnerability management: Prioritize vulnerabilities that pose the greatest operational risk and ensure security decisions are based on system impact.
2. Patch known vulnerabilities – but recognize it’s not enough. Prioritize fixes for flaws actively exploited by threat actors, particularly in VPNs, firewalls, and OT systems. However, patching alone is insufficient, as many attackers leverage zero-day vulnerabilities. Organizations should implement layered defenses and continuous monitoring to detect attempted exploits, even in unpatched environments.
3. Focus on proactive detection and intelligence-driven monitoring. Comprehensive visibility, behavioral detection, and continuous monitoring—especially of sensitive and critical systems—are essential. Contextual threat intelligence should inform prioritization, helping defenders anticipate attacker behavior and make faster, more effective decisions.
Sustaining Readiness in a Shifting Threat Landscape
Arctic Wolf remains actively engaged in monitoring and analyzing the evolving threat landscape. Our global security operations center (SOC) teams continuously track developments, assess threats, and provide our customers with timely, detailed guidance through security bulletins and other direct communications.
For those looking to deepen their understanding of how geopolitical tensions are influencing the cyber threats—and how to best prepare and respond—watch the recent LinkedIn Live we hosted, where we covered the latest updates on this situation, and additional provided practical steps organizations can take to harden their defenses and adapt to this dynamic threat environment.
